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[14 Oct 11: 05:45]
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In the wake of the Elsevier boycott, some are asking if we should change our publication system and if so, how. In search for an answer to this question, I've been thinking about the best place to keep the works of academics safe and publicly accessible in a sustainable, long-term solution. Now what was historically the place where the work of scholars could traditionally be found? The libraries of course! However, given how entrenched some researchers are in the current way of disseminating research and given the opposition an international US$10 billion industry can muster, this solution to parasitic publishing practices is not obvious for everyone. So here I'm collecting the most obvious advantages of a library-based scholarly communication system for semantically linked literature and data.
  • Given a roughly 40% profit margin in academic publishing, give or take (source), the approximately US$10 billion currently being spent can be divided in 6b cost and 4b profits. If most of these funds are being spent by libraries for subscriptions, all else remaining equal, libraries stand to save about 4 billion each year if they could do the job of publishers. According to some estimates, however, costs could be dramatically lowered and thus libraries stand to save significantly more than the 4b annually. Thus, there is ample incentive for libraries and thus the tax-paying public, to cut the middleman out.
  • Libraries are already debating what their future in a digital world could be. Archiving and making the work of their faculty accessible and re-usable seems like a very satisfying purpose for anyone, especially libraries discussing about how to redefine their existence.
  • All the content would remain under the control of the researchers and not in the hands of private entities with diverging interests from both that of the research community and the general public.
  • The funding streams for such a combined data and literature archive would be much more stable and predictable than current models, especially for long-term, sustainable database maintenance. Each university pays only actual costs in proportion to the contributions of their faculty.
  • Libraries already have much of the competence to store and link data together. There are many projects on this technology (see e.g. LODUM) and plenty of research funds are being spent to further develop these technologies. Research is already going on to develop the infrastructure and tools to handle primary research data and literature at university libraries. Thus, there is not a lot that libraries really need to learn in order to do what publishers do - in fact, most libraries are already doing just that.
  • Essentially, libraries are already publishers of, e.g. all the theses of their faculty or historical texts, etc. and some insitutions even have their own university/library presses. Open access to all of these digital media and many more is being organized by, e.g. National Libraries or Networked Repositories for Digital Open Access Publications. Adding scholarly articles to all that thus doesn't really constitute a huge shift for libraries in practical terms.
  • Researchers would have full control over the single search interface needed to most efficiently find the information we are looking for, instead of being stuck with several tools, each of which lacking in either coverage and features.
  • It would be possible not only to implement modern semantic web technology, but also very basic functionality such as hyperlinks: clicking on "the experiments were performed as previously described" would actually take you directly to the detailed methods for the experiment.
  • No more repeated reformatting when re-submitting your work.
  • There still would be plenty of opportunities for commercial businesses in this sector. All the services libraries could not or would not want to do themselves can still be outsourced in a service-based, competitive commercial environment - this would not impact the usability of the scholarly corpus as in the current status quo.
  • Everyone who prefers to look up numbers rather than reading the actual papers can still do that - only that the numbers provided by the new system would have an actual scientific basis. Every kind of metric we can think of is just a few lines of code away if we have full control over the format in which references to our work are handled. This allows not only assessment of articles and data, but also to create a reputation system that can be customized by the individual user to the task at hand, be it tracking topics, ranking scientists or comparing institutions.
  • Users can still choose to pay ex-scientists to select what they think is the best science - after publication. In fact, then their services would actually be in competition with one another and any user's choice wouldn't affect others who do not share that user's opinion on the service or their research interests.
  • We easily have the funds to develop a smart tool that suggests only relevant new research papers and learns from what you and others read (and don't read). This tool is highly customizable and suggests only the research you are interested in - and not that of other people who you haven't chosen to do that task for you.
  • The approximately 1.5 million publications still need to be published. This means few jobs would be lost and plenty of recourse would be available after a rejection. In brief, the beneficial aspects of the heterogeneity of the status quo can be conserved.

Those are only the benefits that immediately come to mind as the most important ones. Thus, as I see it, transitioning from a corporate publisher-based to a library-based system is both practically feasible in the mid-term, would eliminate many negative factors of the current system while conserving any positive values it might have had and providing many new benefits not or difficult to obtain under the current status quo. Thus, the incentives for libraries, the public and science in general are obvious. However, the incentives for individual scientists for such a transition remain small as long as journal rank determines careers. Hence, a critical factor for such a transition is to abandon journal rank in favor of more accurate metrics. I have already presented a number of publications in which the detrimental effect of journal rank has been described and I'm working with a colleague on a review paper covering all of these comprehensively.

Clearly, there will be a debate of how to best transition from the current system to a new one. In order to minimize access issues, I propose that a small set of competent and motivated libraries with large subscription budgets and substantial faculty support cooperate in taking the lead. This group of libraries would shift funds from subscriptions to investing in developing infrastructure and other components for a library-based scholarly communication system. If, say, only ten libraries cut subscriptions on the order of their ten most expensive journals, there would be more than a million Euros available every single year with little or now disruption in access. Some of the freed funds could be used to assist affected faculty in open access publication or inter-library loan of the needed articles. In this way, within a few years, the entire currently available scholarly literature could be made accessible from a single interface using tools vastly superior to the current ones (which is technically rather easy, given the low quality of what we currently have to deal with). The combination of superior access to the literature and a reduction in the requirement to publish in high-ranking journals, should provide sufficient incentives also for young researchers to support the transition.

P.S.: An often mentioned hurdle concerns the back-issues archives of the corporate publishers. Faced with a dwindling customer-base without much prospect for future involvement in scholarly communication, these companies should have little quarrels with a single fee to make all their archives accessible to libraries for transfer into the common database. Already in the current climate, extortion by holding the archives hostage, is not an option. The more we wean ourselves from these corporations, the less support they will have.

UPDATE: Heather Morrison has chimed in with one of her excellent calculations. It is high time more people are thinking along those lines, in order to develop a strategy of how to best transition towards a modern scholarly communication system.

Posted on Friday 17 February 2012 - 10:10:14 comment: 0
libraries   publishing   open access   

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Jason Priem posted on17 Feb 12: 23:41: Libraries are better than corporate publishers because...
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Great post, agreed on almost all counts. Might quibble with you a bit when you say not many jobs will be lost. The market for experienced stableboys took a pretty big hit in the first part of the 20th century, and I suspect we'll see a similar effect for the middlemen in the publishing industry. There was a time when their skills were important and valuable. That time is passing.

But I love your argument that libraries are good organisations to lead this. I'd like to think that there are a few with enough clout, funding, and audacity to pull it off.

Andy Farke posted on18 Feb 12: 11:16: Libraries are better than corporate publishers because...
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I think it is a workable solution, but one (solvable) problem concerns those institutions without libraries, or independent scholars without institutions. In the current system, they can get their work into a journal relatively easily - but few institutions will accept deposits from non-affiliated scholars (unless they are prominent). Is there a solution to this? Perhaps this is an area where an independent concern could step in? (but here I worry again that the less-wealthy could be priced out of the market, as they are for much of scholarly publishing today)

David Crotty posted on18 Feb 12: 14:26: Publisher Profit Margin
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Bjorn, can you provide some idea of the analysis used to derive the 40% profit margin figure for academic publishing? I'm trying to get a sense of this myself and would appreciate your sharing the data you used here.

The not-for-profits that I'm familiar with don't come close to approaching that number. PLoS is at the high end from what I've seen with their 20% profit margin. Many university presses are run at a deficit and require subsidies from their parent institutions.

Even the much vilified Elsevier has a reported profit margin below 40% (36%), but that's perhaps misleading as it includes profits from more than just journal publishing (things like Scopus and LexisNexis).

Which publishing houses are turning profits greater than 40% to bring the average figure up that high?

Thanks for your help with this.

bjoern posted on18 Feb 12: 14:26: Libraries are better than corporate publishers because...
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@Jason: Indeed, I'm only certain of job security in the short term. As with all/most technologies (so far) they tend to push jobs elsewhere. As libraries get better at this and software develops, I'm not so sure anymore that everyone gets to keep their jobs. Given the glacial pace at which things seem to develop right now, I'd speculate that there would be plenty of time for a relatively smooth decline in jobs.

@Andy: This is definitely a very valid concern. I see several potential solutions to that, some will work, other won't. The first relies on the assumption that unaffiliated researchers will be so few that they can be absorbed by the system. Another relies on prestige/reputation being associated with hosting, to reduce incentives to just shut down libraries and let other institutions pay for all the services while accessing all the resources for free. A third idea could be public libraries who might host citizen science literature/data - sounds outrageous also for me but who knows how things might develop. There may also be grants available to apply for: if you have good data/idea, it gets incorporated into the system. Many possibilities, only some will prove to actually be realistic.

bjoern posted on18 Feb 12: 14:57: Libraries are better than corporate publishers because...
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@David: The percentage doesn't matter - the absolute numbers do: that's the money that can potentially either be saved or invested in a 21st century scholarly communication system. The number 40% was an easy figure that roughly matched the 4b annual profits I was able to research. Wiley did even better than Elsevier with 42%:
http://svpow.wordpress.com/2012/01/13/the-obscene-profits-of-commercial-scholarly-publishers/
The point here is not the 5 percents give or take, but the billions potentially being saved. The figures vary a bit by source, year and of course by exchange rate (see also linked sources, some only in my previous posts). Maybe world-wide revenue is closer to 12b (if US alone is already 8b) and margins around 30%? In that case, libraries would still stand 4b to save.

The point here is that only a fraction of what libraries currently pay is taken up by actual production costs. I's hazard a guess that not even you or anybody from TSK will argue that in the hypothetical case of every library cutting every single subscription before 2013 and instead publishing every single article of 2013 themselves using 2012 budgets and 2012 actual publishing costs, they'd have billions (in any major currency) left over at the end of 2013. For the kind of investments needed it really doesn't matter if it's 3 or 4 billion - it'll be way more than enough either way.

The above notwithstanding, the transition will not be trivial nor painless, I'm not deluding myself. But the kind of money usually 'wasted' in lining shareholders pockets will surely go a very, very long way in not only smoothening but also lubricating the transition for all involved. Moreover, the goal is so attractive and worthwhile compared to the status quo that academia will likely be rather forgiving during the transition.

This is, of course, unless you have completely different numbers and there are actually only a few thousands potentially being saved because there is actually very little money going towards shareholders? That's not a rhetorical question: is it correct that if a library pays $1.7m for a bundle of Elsevier-journal subscriptions, $607,580 of that goes straight into the pockets of Elsevier shareholders? If that is correct, then this one library alone could invest $600k+ in the scholarly publication system every year if its budget remained constant, it cut the Elsevier bundle and instead payed the same sum to pay for article publication.

David Crotty posted on18 Feb 12: 16:37: Libraries are better than corporate publishers because...
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@Bjoern
It's hard to judge the economic feasibility of a plan that's based on vague economic assumptions. There's money in the system, but it's unclear how much, and it's unclear what the costs are. Hard to know from that whether something like that would work.

Like Elsevier, Wiley is an enormous company with a wide variety of revenue streams. How much of their profit comes from journals, how much from textbooks, books, online products, databases, reference books, etc? You're looking at a piece of the pie and assuming it's the entire pie.

To answer your question:
---is it correct that if a library pays $1.7m for a bundle of Elsevier-journal subscriptions, $607,580 of that goes straight into the pockets of Elsevier shareholders?---

No, that is not correct. What is the profit margin on that bundle of journals? This may be more or less than the company's overall profit margin. Furthermore, what do you mean by going "straight into the pockets of Elsevier shareholders?" I don't know what Elsevier's dividend situation is--do they pay investors a dividend, and what percentage of profits does that encompass? More importantly, what percentage of profits are reinvested in other ventures. It costs money to build things like SciVerse. MacMillan has to spend money to build things like The Nature Network, or to invest in companies through Digital Science. So a significant portion of those companies' profits are reinvested back into the companies themselves, rather than going into anyone's pockets.

-----

Not sure how much further I'll be able to get into this, am about to head out on a very busy week, but some further thoughts that I'd suggest here:

It strikes me that much of what you propose here is reinventing the wheel. You're asking librarians to take on an entirely new set of tasks at which they have minimal expertise and you want to spend to build an entirely new publishing infrastructure.

At the same time, you have an entire network of university presses and research societies that publish journals. These groups already have the expertise and the infrastructure in place. Why pay hundreds of millions of dollars to rebuild HighWire Press when you already have HighWire Press?

Since these groups are owned by and controlled by the universities and the research community, there's nothing stopping them from radically reorganizing the business structure, and turning them into the flat, run-at-cost, freely available sorts of services you're proposing.

Really, it seems like what you're more interested in doing here is cutting the commercial publishers out of the loop, and keeping the funds within the academic community. There may be simpler ways of doing this that achieve your goals at a much lower cost.

-----

Publishing is a business that thrives on economies of scale. That's why Elsevier can be so profitable--their sheer size lowers the costs for individual journals or articles. Your system removes all those benefits of scale. Instead of each university spending a great amount to build its own system, aren't they better served by pooling their resources and taking advantage of scale to save costs?

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If all you're building here is a university by university set of arXivs, then why not just use arXiv instead? It's already there.

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Another issue is that your plan assumes that all a publisher provides (and spends on) is production. Your scheme would replace the dissemination function of journals but none of the other services that journals provide. Given that arXiv has existed for more than 20 years yet there is still a thriving physics journal market, clearly the community has needs that go beyond what arXiv alone provides. Any cost numbers you suggest must account for replacing these added functions. If you suggest that these will be crowdsourced, then you may want to figure out the cost in time and effort required that is taken away from time spent performing research.

You suggest that others would be free to add in these additional services "after publication" but there's no mention of how someone would pay for them if they are desired. Where in the economic planning do the funds to pay for these services come in if you're spending all of your money on production and dissemination?

-----

Many societies and universities own journals or publishing programs and use them as profit centers. The numbers you use must account for replacement of these lost sources of income for the universities/societies that rely on journal profits.

-----

There's also some value in having publication handled by independent bodies outside of one's own university. If I am denied tenure and my university declines to publish my research, what am I to do with it? I have no connection to another university to get it published there. I have no recourse, no other means of getting my research out there. There's value in having multiple outlets, so if one treats you unfairly, you still have a chance at a fair shake from another.

-----

All that said, there's much merit and many interesting ideas in what you propose. I'm not sure if this is the most efficient way to implement these things though. It's a complex proposal meant to replace (at least part of) a complex situation. These sorts of idealistic approaches--what is my dream system to solve the problems I see--have value at an initial phase. The difficulty is in translating them into achievable real world actions. That's where having the data that proves them workable becomes crucial as far as gaining buy-in from the community.

bjoern posted on18 Feb 12: 17:23: Libraries are better than corporate publishers because...
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@David: It shows again that you're (IMHO) the only one at TSK worth interacting with, thank you. Your points are well taken and I'm only replying for my own records and other readers - I'm sure everyone is completely fine with you attending more pressing business.

You write:

Really, it seems like what you're more interested in doing here is cutting the commercial publishers out of the loop, and keeping the funds within the academic community. There may be simpler ways of doing this that achieve your goals at a much lower cost.
Indeed this is one major aspect of what I think is the most rational way forward and I'm not dogmatic in how we regain control of scholarship that we have ceded for too long. I'm not opposed to corporate publishers in principle. Whatever the most cost-effective way to achieve full control of scholarly communication with the technical benefits required at full, universal OA, I'm fine with it. Indeed, I'd be surprised if I could come up with that way: if I can get the smarter and more competent people to find it, it'd be already more than I'd hope for.

Publishing is a business that thrives on economies of scale. That's why Elsevier can be so profitable--their sheer size lowers the costs for individual journals or articles. Your system removes all those benefits of scale. Instead of each university spending a great amount to build its own system, aren't they better served by pooling their resources and taking advantage of scale to save costs?
Clearly, a unified scholarly communications system only works with standards. Thus, the scale would of course be even larger than that of a single publisher - it would encompass all of the scholarly literature and data. Not just 2k journals like Elsevier: the content of 26k journals as well as that of thousands of primary research databases.

Another issue is that your plan assumes that all a publisher provides (and spends on) is production.
Not quite. Here's the presentation I linked to above that shows the tasks publishers do and outlines an analogous system as I'm proposing:
https://docs.google.com/present/view?id=ddfg787c_362f465q2g5&pli=1
If this doesn't cover it, I'd like to know what else publishers are providing. This is an honest question which I apparently share with a quite a few others (links here)

You suggest that others would be free to add in these additional services "after publication" but there's no mention of how someone would pay for them if they are desired. Where in the economic planning do the funds to pay for these services come in if you're spending all of your money on production and dissemination?
For instance, if a researcher would like to keep the current system of professional editors choosing the literature for him/her, rather than use the customizable IT-based system I would like to alert me to the most relevant research, they could still choose to pay people to do that. If editors are correct that they are so good at that, there may even be entire institutions that would be willing to pay for such a service. How this is paid for, is of course each individual's own decision, as long as the literature and data are available. If a software-based system is better, then nobody will want to pay for that. The important part is that re-submissions without edits and just reformatting are reduced and scientist's careers are decided by their peers and not by professional editors: science wins and scientists win.

Many societies and universities own journals or publishing programs and use them as profit centers. The numbers you use must account for replacement of these lost sources of income for the universities/societies that rely on journal profits.
Indeed, that is correct: such societies will have to look for other sources of income. I've been prompted to think about this very issue before and so far see nothing wrong with that: Most likely, the income will have to come from their members, rather than non-members as now.

There's also some value in having publication handled by independent bodies outside of one's own university. If I am denied tenure and my university declines to publish my research, what am I to do with it?
That's what I meant with my last point: because this system is so large, there is plenty of room to allow for sufficient recourse in such cases. In theory, it would be even larger than now, as one could draw from really every academic. If all these recourses in such a huge and heterogeneous community were to be exhausted, chances are that it probably shouldn't join the scholarly literature. Still, some ideas, while 'correct', might be so far ahead of their time than not a single academic would be willing to support them. These ideas also face tough times today and on top of that many other things are going wrong. So while no system would be able to pick such ideas up, the system I propose would at least solve many other problems.

I'm not sure if this is the most efficient way to implement these things though. It's a complex proposal meant to replace (at least part of) a complex situation. These sorts of idealistic approaches--what is my dream system to solve the problems I see--have value at an initial phase. The difficulty is in translating them into achievable real world actions. That's where having the data that proves them workable becomes crucial as far as gaining buy-in from the community.
No argument from me there. I'm far from sure myself, but I don't see any reason why it shouldn't work. As any scientist in the face of overwhelming evidence, I'll reverse my stance if a good case can be made against my proposal.

Mike Taylor posted on19 Feb 12: 10:24: Libraries are better than corporate publishers because...
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"It's hard to judge the economic feasibility of a plan that's based on vague economic assumptions. There's money in the system, but it's unclear how much, and it's unclear what the costs are."

I beg your pardon, but the economic assumptions are not vague at all. They are straight out of the annual reports of Elsevier, Springer, Wiley and Informa. We know the annual income and ther annual profit of those companies; subtraction gives us their annual costs.

There are complexities around the issues of scholarly publishing, for sure; but this is not one of them.

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